Thermal structure, coupling and metamorphism in the Mexican subduction zone beneath Guerrero   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

V. C. Manea  M. Manea  V. Kostoglodov  C. A. Currie  G. Sewell 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,158(2):775-784

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Estimation of regional material yield from coastal landslides based on historical digital terrain modelling     

C. J. Hapke 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(6):679-697

High‐resolution historical (1942) and recent (1994) digital terrain models were derived from aerial photographs along the Big Sur coastline in central California to measure the long‐term volume of material that enters the nearshore environment. During the 52‐year measurement time period, an average of 21 000 ± 3100 m³ km^?1 a^?1 of material was eroded from nine study sections distributed along the coast, with a low yield of 1000 ± 240 m³ km^?1 a^?1 and a high of 46 700 ± 7300 m³ km^?1 a^?1. The results compare well with known volumes from several deep‐seated landslides in the area and suggest that the processes by which material is delivered to the coast are episodic in nature. In addition, a number of parameters are investigated to determine what influences the substantial variation in yield along the coast. It is found that the magnitude of regional coastal landslide sediment yield is primarily related to the physical strength of the slope‐forming material. Coastal Highway 1 runs along the lower portion of the slope along this stretch of coastline, and winter storms frequently damage the highway. The California Department of Transportation is responsible for maintaining this scenic highway while minimizing the impacts to the coastal ecosystems that are part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. This study provides environmental managers with critical background data on the volumes of material that historically enter the nearshore from landslides, as well as demonstrating the application of deriving historical digital terrain data to model landscape evolution. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Spherical Block Model: Dynamics of the Global System of Tectonic Plates and Seismicity     

V. L. Rozenberg  P. O. Sobolev  A. A. Soloviev  L. A. Melnikova 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(1):145-164

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Geostatistical simulation of random fields with bivariate isofactorial distributions by adding mosaic models     

Xavier Emery 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(5):348-360

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of a family of stationary random field models with bivariate isofactorial distributions. Such models are defined as the sum of independent random fields with mosaic-type bivariate distributions and infinitely divisible univariate distributions. For practical applications, dead leaf tessellations are used since they provide a wide range of models and allow conditioning the realizations to a set of data via an iterative procedure (simulated annealing). The model parameters can be determined by comparing the data variogram and madogram, and enable to control the spatial connectivity of the extreme values in the realizations. An illustration to a forest dataset is presented, for which a negative binomial model is used to characterize the distribution of coniferous trees over a wooded area.  相似文献   

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Thorsten Wagener  Hoshin V. Gupta 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):378-387

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.  相似文献   

A comparative study of concentrated plasticity models in dynamic analysis of building structures     

Maurice A. Dides  Juan C. de la Llera 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(8):1005-1026

Concentrated plasticity (CP) models are frequently used in static and dynamic building analysis and have been implemented in available commercial software. This investigation deals with three different CP‐models, a simplified macroelement model (SEM) for a complete building story, a frame element with elasto‐plastic interaction hinges (PH), and a frame element with fiber hinges (FB). The objectives of this work are to evaluate the quality of the earthquake responses predicted by these models and to identify important aspects of their implementation and limitations for their use in dynamic analysis. The three elements are tested in a single‐story asymmetric plan building and in a three‐story steel building. Results show that base shear and global response values are usually computed with better accuracy than interstory deformations and local responses. Besides, the main limitation of elasto‐plastic CP models is to control the displacement offsets that result from perfect elasto‐plastic behavior. On the other hand, calibration of the SEM‐model shows that global responses in steel structures may be computed within 20% error in the mean at a computational cost two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the other CP elements considered. However, the three element models considered lead to increasing levels of accuracy in the dynamic response and their use depends on the refinement of the analysis performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3-D modelling and analysis of Dst C-responses in the North Pacific Ocean region, revisited     

Alexei Kuvshinov  Hisashi Utada  Dmitry Avdeev  Takao Koyama 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,160(2):505-526

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Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*     

Jennifer Miller 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(2):169-184

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.  相似文献   

High-resolution imaging of the Bear Valley section of the San Andreas fault at seismogenic depths with fault-zone head waves and relocated seismicity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jeff McGuire  Yehuda Ben-Zion 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):152-164

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Two contrasted P–T–time paths of coronitic metanorites of the French Massif Central: are reaction textures reliable guides to metamorphic histories?     

C. NICOLLET  P. GONCALVES 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2005,23(2):97-105

Metanorites from two eclogitized metagabbros of the Hercynian French Massif Central preserve coronitic textures of hornblende, garnet, quartz and/or kyanite produced at the expense of the primary magmatic assemblage orthopyroxene and plagioclase. Using a petrogenetic grid in the CFMASH system, two possible P–T evolutions for the origin of the coronas are evaluated. The sequence of reactions involving the formation of Hbl (–Ky) ± Grt and Qtz coronitic assemblages is consistent with an isobaric cooling at high pressure (c. 1–2 GPa) under hydrated conditions. However, this P–T path, inferred by using only petrographical observations, is inconsistent with the geochronological constraints: emplacement of the gabbro at 490 Ma and high‐pressure metamorphism at 410 Ma. In order to reconcile petrographical observations with geochronological constraints, we propose a discontinuous two‐stage evolution involving a change in water activity with time. (1) Emplacement and cooling of the norite at low pressure under anhydrous conditions, at 490 Ma. (2) During the Hercynian orogeny, the norite experienced an increase in pressure and temperature under fluid‐present conditions. Adding water to the system implies a dramatic change in the petrogenetic grid topology, restricting the orthopyroxene–plagioclase assemblage only to high temperatures. Therefore, the breakdown of the unstable magmatic assemblage, through apparent retrograde reactions, occurred along the prograde P–T path which never crossed the equilibrium boundaries of these reactions.  相似文献